Modeling social interaction and metapopulation mobility of the COVID-19 pandemic in main cities of highly populated Java Island, Indonesia: An agent-based modeling approach

IntroductionCoronavirus transmission is strongly influenced by human mobilities and interactions within and between different geographical regions. Human mobility within and between cities is motivated by several factors, including employment, cultural-driven, holidays, and daily routines. MethodWe developed a sustained metapopulation (SAMPAN) model, an agent-based model (ABM) for simulating the effect of individual mobility and interaction behavior on the spreading of COVID-19 viruses across main cities on Java Island, Indonesia. The model considers social classes and social mixing affecting the mobility and interaction behavior within a sub-population of a city in the early pandemic. Travelers' behavior represents the mobility among cities from central cities to other cities and commuting behavior from the surrounding area of each city. ResultsLocal sensitivity analysis using one factor at a time was performed to test the SAMPAN model, and we have identified critical parameters for the model. While validation was carried out for the Jakarta area, we are confident in implementing the model for a larger area with the concept of metapopulation dynamics. We included the area of Bogor, Depok, Bekasi, Bandung, Semarang, Surakarta, Yogyakarta, Surabaya, and Malang cities which have important roles in the COVID-19 pandemic spreading on this island. DiscussionOur SAMPAN model can simulate various waves during the first year of the pandemic caused by various phenomena of large social mobilities and interactions, particularly during religious occasions and long holidays.

Detecting Students' Behavior on the E-Learning System Using SVM Kernels - Based Ensemble Learning Algorithm

The corona pandemic has changed learning methods from face-to-face to online. However, the application of online learning creates difficulties for teachers in monitoring student behavior because of the reduced direct interaction. This problem causes the learning process to be less optimal. Moreover, students may fail to achieve learning objectives. This research addresses this problem by building a model to detect student behavior in this online learning. It focuses on finding an optimal model by exploring the ensemble learning-stacking method based on a combination of SVM kernels (Linear, Polynomial, RBF, Sigmoid). After the model was built, it was evaluated using two performance measurement techniques, namely: cross-validation and percentage split, and several performance measures, namely: AUC, Accuracy, F1, Precision, and Recall. The evaluation results show the superiority of the models applying ensemble learning over those without it. In terms of accuracy, the highest result in the cross-validation technique is 98.4%, achieved by three models employing stacking. Those three are with base learners combination of linear-polynomial-sigmoid kernel (LinPolSig_Stack), a combination of linear-RBF-sigmoid kernel (LinRBFSig_Stack), and a combination of all kernels-linear, polynomial, RBF, sigmoid (AllKernels_Stack). In the percentage split technique, the highest performance is 97.4%, achieved by two models implementing ensemble learning-stacking with base-learners combination of RBF-sigmoid kernel (RBFSig_Stack) and combination of linearpolynomial-sigmoid kernel (LinPolSig_Stack). Finally, the highest performance of these models is equivalent to the minimum error in detecting student behavior. Detection errors were only three students in the three models in the cross-validation technique and only six in the two models in the percentage split technique. © 2023, International Journal of Intelligent Engineering and Systems. All Rights Reserved.